Nat'l Association of Realtors Cheif Economist believes so. I think most, me included, think there's awhile to go on the downside:
http://www.presstelegram.com/ci_7455890
Home prices to fall further
<!--subtitle-->Realtors group predicts further gloom for homeowners. L.B.'s Gaylord answers subprime critics
<!--byline-->By Don Jergler, Staff writer
<!--date-->Article Launched: 11/13/2007 11:10:57 PM PST
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<SCRIPT language=JavaScript> if(requestedWidth > 0){ document.getElementById('articleViewerGroup').style.width = requestedWidth + "px"; document.getElementById('articleViewerGroup').style.margin = "0px 0px 10px 10px"; } </SCRIPT>LAS VEGAS - This year will conclude with the national median existing home price down 1.7 percent and sales will end up down nearly 1 million units from last year, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
Speaking from the group's annual conference in Las Vegas, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun issued his monthly forecast calling for the national median to drop to $218,200 and to stay there through 2008, while sales of existing homes will enter a period of "modest recovery" in 2008.
"We are now predicting much softer 4th Quarter fourth-quarter sales figures," Yun said.
Yun and Long Beach Realtor Richard "Dick" Gaylord, who was installed on Monday as NAR president, were pelted with questions by members of the media attending the conference about the state of the housing market and whether Realtors should take the blame for the downturn and the subprime lending fallout.
NAR also released its Pending Home Sales Index for September, which rose 0.2 percent in August but was 20.4 percent lower than the same period a year ago. The index is based on pending sales of existing homes and is considered a leading indicator in housing.
"The September figure is clearly indicating the mortgage market disruption this summer," Yun said.
Yun said he believes it will take a year or more for the market to return to normalcy and that the market has reached bottom.
"I think that we will be back to healthy, normal
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conditions in 2009, Yun said. With falling pricing, and the availability of jumbo mortgages and FHA loans replacing subprime loans to serve low- and moderate-income buyers, Yun believes the worst of the mortgage fallout and the housing lag are behind us.
"In my view we are hitting low right now," Yun said.
Yun's forecast shows new home sales falling from 1.05 million in 2006 to 796,000 units this year and continuing to fall to 693,000 in 2008.
Housing starts are forecast to fall from 1.8 million in 2006 to 1.35 million this year and to 1.14 million in 2008.
The median new home price will fall 1.6 percent to $242,500 in 2007, then rise 0.4 percent to $243,600 in 2008, according to Yun's forecast.
Yun said that while the nation's median price is expected to drop, there will be regional variations.
"There's large local variations," Yun said.
Areas of Texas and Utah continue to see strong housing markets, while places like Detroit, where job losses have been recorded for six consecutive years, and areas of Florida and portions of Southern California are seeing some of the worst market conditions, Yun said.
Yun blamed some of the market woes on the subprime fallout.
"Going forward I am closely monitoring the Inland counties of Southern California," Yun said.
He also blamed some of the local fluctuations on housing speculators, who overloaded markets like downtown San Diego and Las Vegas with condominiums.
"Las Vegas is ground zero for the transition in the housing market," Yun said.
Another factor in the down housing market Yun pointed to was the media, and what he called "lazy reporters" during another conference prior to the forecast.
It has been Yun's position, as well as that of NAR, that negative stories about the housing market have caused many would-be buyers to put off entering the market.
Pressed about his statement about the media role that the media was also hurting the marketby members of the media at the conference, Yun acknowledged that a handful of Realtors could take the blame for the housing situation because they let their clients get into homes knowing they were too much for them.
"Certainly some are guilty," but only a small handful out of NAR's 1.35 million members, he said.
Yun also got hammered about whether there was ever a housing bubble that has now burst.
He stopped short of answering, but said there may have been a bubble in the real estate industry itself, which swelled as the housing market heated - there is now one licensed real estate agent for every 50 Californians, for example.
"Certainly for people in the industry ... it's clearly a bubble for them," Yun said.
Yun acknowledged certain areas, like Sarasota, Fla., where market speculators have fled and prices declines are falling year over year in double-digit percentages, could be considered to have been in a bubble.
He also said it's clear there was a bubble in the lending industry.
"There is a large loss and bubble collapse in that area," he said.
During an earlier conference presentation Long Beach Realtor and incoming NAR President Richard "Dick" Gaylord defended Realtors' role in the housing downfall. and he Gaylord also blamed negative media reports for keeping potential homeowners from purchases.
NAR strictly enforces the Realtor code of ethics, Gaylord said, adding that only about half the nation's 2.3 million licensed real estate agents are NAR members.
Gaylord, who works for Re/Max Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, was installed as the NAR president during a ceremony at the Venetian Hotel on Tuesday Monday before a crowd of more than 2,500 at an event attended by real estate professionals from around the world as well as members of Congress. as well as people from A number of Long Beach residents were in attendance.
Most Realtors do not get involved with the lending product, and therefore Realtors are not to blame for the massive amount ofexotic loans of the last few years, such as those that give financing to people with zero-down and interest-only loans.
Gaylord also insisted that despite the turbulence in the market, it's still a good time to buy.
"I've been in this business 30 years and I've never known a down market," he said, adding that homes are a long-term investment.
He purchased his home, a fixer-upper in Long Beach in 1989 for $325,000, and put another $75,000 into it, only to watch it quickly fall to $300,000, Gaylord said, adding, "That home today is worth $1.25 million."
While he is concerned about the growing rate of foreclosures, on the whole the housing market and the U.S. economy are strong, Gaylord said.
He added, "I'm not troubled terribly by today's market."
http://www.presstelegram.com/ci_7455890
Home prices to fall further
<!--subtitle-->Realtors group predicts further gloom for homeowners. L.B.'s Gaylord answers subprime critics
<!--byline-->By Don Jergler, Staff writer
<!--date-->Article Launched: 11/13/2007 11:10:57 PM PST
<SCRIPT language=JavaScript> var requestedWidth = 0; </SCRIPT>
<SCRIPT language=JavaScript> if(requestedWidth > 0){ document.getElementById('articleViewerGroup').style.width = requestedWidth + "px"; document.getElementById('articleViewerGroup').style.margin = "0px 0px 10px 10px"; } </SCRIPT>LAS VEGAS - This year will conclude with the national median existing home price down 1.7 percent and sales will end up down nearly 1 million units from last year, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
Speaking from the group's annual conference in Las Vegas, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun issued his monthly forecast calling for the national median to drop to $218,200 and to stay there through 2008, while sales of existing homes will enter a period of "modest recovery" in 2008.
"We are now predicting much softer 4th Quarter fourth-quarter sales figures," Yun said.
Yun and Long Beach Realtor Richard "Dick" Gaylord, who was installed on Monday as NAR president, were pelted with questions by members of the media attending the conference about the state of the housing market and whether Realtors should take the blame for the downturn and the subprime lending fallout.
NAR also released its Pending Home Sales Index for September, which rose 0.2 percent in August but was 20.4 percent lower than the same period a year ago. The index is based on pending sales of existing homes and is considered a leading indicator in housing.
"The September figure is clearly indicating the mortgage market disruption this summer," Yun said.
Yun said he believes it will take a year or more for the market to return to normalcy and that the market has reached bottom.
"I think that we will be back to healthy, normal
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conditions in 2009, Yun said. With falling pricing, and the availability of jumbo mortgages and FHA loans replacing subprime loans to serve low- and moderate-income buyers, Yun believes the worst of the mortgage fallout and the housing lag are behind us.
"In my view we are hitting low right now," Yun said.
Yun's forecast shows new home sales falling from 1.05 million in 2006 to 796,000 units this year and continuing to fall to 693,000 in 2008.
Housing starts are forecast to fall from 1.8 million in 2006 to 1.35 million this year and to 1.14 million in 2008.
The median new home price will fall 1.6 percent to $242,500 in 2007, then rise 0.4 percent to $243,600 in 2008, according to Yun's forecast.
Yun said that while the nation's median price is expected to drop, there will be regional variations.
"There's large local variations," Yun said.
Areas of Texas and Utah continue to see strong housing markets, while places like Detroit, where job losses have been recorded for six consecutive years, and areas of Florida and portions of Southern California are seeing some of the worst market conditions, Yun said.
Yun blamed some of the market woes on the subprime fallout.
"Going forward I am closely monitoring the Inland counties of Southern California," Yun said.
He also blamed some of the local fluctuations on housing speculators, who overloaded markets like downtown San Diego and Las Vegas with condominiums.
"Las Vegas is ground zero for the transition in the housing market," Yun said.
Another factor in the down housing market Yun pointed to was the media, and what he called "lazy reporters" during another conference prior to the forecast.
It has been Yun's position, as well as that of NAR, that negative stories about the housing market have caused many would-be buyers to put off entering the market.
Pressed about his statement about the media role that the media was also hurting the marketby members of the media at the conference, Yun acknowledged that a handful of Realtors could take the blame for the housing situation because they let their clients get into homes knowing they were too much for them.
"Certainly some are guilty," but only a small handful out of NAR's 1.35 million members, he said.
Yun also got hammered about whether there was ever a housing bubble that has now burst.
He stopped short of answering, but said there may have been a bubble in the real estate industry itself, which swelled as the housing market heated - there is now one licensed real estate agent for every 50 Californians, for example.
"Certainly for people in the industry ... it's clearly a bubble for them," Yun said.
Yun acknowledged certain areas, like Sarasota, Fla., where market speculators have fled and prices declines are falling year over year in double-digit percentages, could be considered to have been in a bubble.
He also said it's clear there was a bubble in the lending industry.
"There is a large loss and bubble collapse in that area," he said.
During an earlier conference presentation Long Beach Realtor and incoming NAR President Richard "Dick" Gaylord defended Realtors' role in the housing downfall. and he Gaylord also blamed negative media reports for keeping potential homeowners from purchases.
NAR strictly enforces the Realtor code of ethics, Gaylord said, adding that only about half the nation's 2.3 million licensed real estate agents are NAR members.
Gaylord, who works for Re/Max Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, was installed as the NAR president during a ceremony at the Venetian Hotel on Tuesday Monday before a crowd of more than 2,500 at an event attended by real estate professionals from around the world as well as members of Congress. as well as people from A number of Long Beach residents were in attendance.
Most Realtors do not get involved with the lending product, and therefore Realtors are not to blame for the massive amount ofexotic loans of the last few years, such as those that give financing to people with zero-down and interest-only loans.
Gaylord also insisted that despite the turbulence in the market, it's still a good time to buy.
"I've been in this business 30 years and I've never known a down market," he said, adding that homes are a long-term investment.
He purchased his home, a fixer-upper in Long Beach in 1989 for $325,000, and put another $75,000 into it, only to watch it quickly fall to $300,000, Gaylord said, adding, "That home today is worth $1.25 million."
While he is concerned about the growing rate of foreclosures, on the whole the housing market and the U.S. economy are strong, Gaylord said.
He added, "I'm not troubled terribly by today's market."
